Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."

• Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
• Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia done," he declared.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.

The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.

However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.

So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.